موقع وجه أفريقيا موقع وجه أفريقيا هو موقع مهتم بمتابعة التطورات في القارة الأفريقية
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Kampala – Report – Reda Helal:
The World Bank has released the 25th edition of the Uganda Economic Update, providing a comprehensive assessment of the country’s economic performance in FY2024/2025 and its prospects as commercial oil production approaches.
Strong Growth with Brighter Prospects Ahead
According to the report, Uganda’s real GDP accelerated from 6.1% to 6.8% between July 2024 and March 2025, driven by agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and both public and private consumption. However, the services sector showed signs of weakening.
Looking ahead, the Bank projects that growth could surge to 10.4% by FY2026/2027 once oil production and exports commence through the regional crude pipeline, before stabilizing at around 6%.
Risks Clouding the Outlook
Despite the positive trajectory, the report cautions that several risks could derail momentum:
Delays in completing critical oil infrastructure.
Potential decline in global oil prices due to the energy transition.
Global supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts.
Rising public debt, now at 53% of GDP, compounded by higher spending during the ongoing election cycle.
Urgent Fiscal Reforms Needed
The report stresses the urgency of improving domestic revenue mobilization, with Uganda’s tax-to-GDP ratio at just 14%, below both the Sub-Saharan Africa average and the critical 15% threshold for sustainable development.
Recommended reforms include:
Adjusting personal income tax brackets to account for inflation, raising exemptions for low-income earners while introducing a new 35% rate for high-income earners.
Reviewing tax exemptions and investment incentives to ensure efficiency and fairness.
Strengthening taxation of high-net-worth individuals.
Smarter Spending and Anti-Corruption Measures
The World Bank also calls for stronger efficiency in public expenditure through:
Cutting wasteful administrative spending.
Enhancing anti-corruption mechanisms.
Improving project execution capacity.
Imposing stricter guidelines on creating new administrative structures.
Reforming local revenue frameworks to raise more from sub-national governments.
The report concludes that Uganda’s ability to harness its upcoming oil windfall, while managing risks and strengthening governance, will determine whether the country can translate economic growth into broad-based development.
